Here’s a bold statement: the home run isn’t just a highlight—it’s the secret weapon of postseason baseball. And this is the part most people miss: it’s not just about hitting them; it’s about hitting them strategically. Take the Mariners, for example, whose recent surge in home runs has perfectly aligned with a broader MLB playoff trend. But here’s where it gets controversial: while homers are undeniably game-changers, relying solely on them might be a risky strategy, especially in high-pressure October matchups.
On the final day of the regular season, Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners’ president of baseball operations, shared a keen insight from the dugout at T-Mobile Park. He noted that postseason games rarely offer the luxury of facing a struggling reliever or a back-end starter. Instead, teams face the best pitchers in baseball, making it incredibly difficult to string together hits for consistent scoring. “Crooked numbers,” Dipoto explained, “happen when you hit it out of the park. Even the best pitchers give up homers.” This simple truth underscores why home runs are so critical in the playoffs—they’re often the only way to break through elite pitching.
During the regular season, home runs are a reliable path to success. Over a 162-game marathon, teams that consistently hit them tend to secure a spot in October. But the postseason is a different beast—a sprint where timing matters as much as power. Hit a home run at the right moment, and it can shift the entire momentum of a series. Game 2 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS) against the Toronto Blue Jays was a perfect illustration. The Mariners’ two three-run homers were the difference-makers in their 10-3 victory, sending them home with a commanding 2-0 series lead.
Through their first seven playoff games, the Mariners scored multiple runs in an inning seven times. Six of those innings included a home run, proving Dipoto’s point. Even solo shots acted as catalysts, sparking bigger rallies. And when multi-run homers like Julio Rodríguez’s and Jorge Polanco’s three-run blasts, or Josh Naylor’s two-run shot, come into play, the result can be a 10-run explosion.
But here’s the twist: despite their success on the road, the Mariners aren’t banking on a homer-heavy approach back at T-Mobile Park. “We shouldn’t go home expecting the three-run homer to bail us out,” Mitch Garver cautioned. “We need to focus on small ball—base hits, moving runners, and driving them in.” This pragmatic mindset highlights the unpredictability of postseason baseball, where even the most powerful teams must adapt.
Statistically, the trend is clear: teams that out-homer their opponents are dominating this postseason, with a 20-3 record across all ALCS and NLCS games. The Mariners, who ranked third in MLB and second in the American League with 238 home runs during the regular season, are no exception. Yet, history shows that home runs alone don’t guarantee success. In the past decade, only once has the World Series featured two top-three home run teams—last season’s Yankees and Dodgers. Meanwhile, teams like the 2019 Nationals (13th in homers) and the 2016 Cubs (13th) proved that power isn’t everything.
So, is the home run the ultimate postseason strategy, or just one piece of the puzzle? This season, Toronto (tied for 11th in homers) and Milwaukee (22nd) are still in the mix, challenging the narrative. What do you think? Are home runs overrated in the playoffs, or are they the key to October success? Let’s hear your take in the comments!
